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Jan 16th
09:26 pm
More Dirty Grandpa & Zac leaving a restaurant  


1, 2
8 8 comments Comment
Bee: Zac – CStC - ani - crying 1jeezbee on January 16th, 2016 08:58 pm (UTC)
The lack of press coverage for Dirty Grandpa is depressing.

I know this is not a huge movie and I don't expect them to get the cast out 4 weeks in advance (2 seems appropriate) but it's less than a week to go and there is hardly anything in the media. Lionsgate has a reputation to be cheap but this is really ridiculous.

At this point with the lack of coverage and the online feedback (quality & quantity) I see, I expect this movie to bomb but I really hope it's not getting as bad as WAYF. I'm glad he has no other movies with Lionsgate.

Edited at 2016-01-16 08:58 pm (UTC)
Zac Efron: pic#125784990ZEupdates on January 17th, 2016 02:20 am (UTC)
As far as I know Adam Pally was the only "active" member of the cast last week in terms of promo. Like you said, that's depressing. Does De Niro usually go to premieres? I hope we'll see him in LA.

Combined to the lack of promo, I think the amount of free screenings is also an issue. I'm from Quebec, a small market, and three free screenings will take place next Wednesday. I'm not sure about how much of an impact it has, but I know I probably won't go with friends as planned. We'll go Friday instead. Our 10$ will be included in the North American BO and I'll feel like I did my duty lol.
Beejeezbee on January 18th, 2016 07:19 pm (UTC)
Idk if De Niro will do any promo tbh. He sometimes does, and sometimes doesn't. I guess it depends on if he's willing to promote the movie in question and/or if the distributor is willing to cough up enough money (cast members doing promo is not free... esp for high profile ones you have to pay at least for publicist, assistant, security, styling, make-up, hair, etc etc; plus, it depends on their contract how much they are obligated to do). Considering that Dirty Grandpa will probably not get much critical and/or box office love, De Niro might skip this one. Idk. I don't have any information but I haven't seen him scheduled for anything so far. I do hope he will do at least a premiere (assuming that one will happen although I haven't seen any proof of that either).

The screenings are really not much of an issue imo. Look at the math... the 2015 average ticket price in the US is $8.61 although that includes 3D screenings and other stuff so the average price for this movie is probably lower but let's use this.

So, how many people would need to show up for certain #s:

$10 million opening weekend = 1,225,490 paying customers
$15 million OW = 1,742,160
$20 million OW = 2,322,880
$25 million OW = 2,903,600

There are some movies which do screening for months and that can turn into a small effect but idt this is the case here. If you assume they do 100 screenings with an average of 200 participants (that's me making a guess based on what I see although I don't have any actual info and it might be generous), this makes 20,000 people (or the equivalent of $172,200)

So... eg 1,225,490 vs 20,000.

And you have to assume that a reasonable share of those free participants wouldn't go at the weekend if they had to pay anyway, and others might watch it again with friends. But it's really the worth of mouth why studios are doing it which should have usually a more positive effect than the loss of those customers. Yeah, it can cost you a few people on opening weekend but I don't think it's the reason why a movie usually would bomb.
Zac Efron: pic#125784990ZEupdates on January 19th, 2016 12:24 am (UTC)
That was an interesting read. Thank you.

Boxoffice.com had a $13M opening weekend prediction just a few days ago. It was ajusted to $10,5M.
hunny miss (aka lets fead him to the gators): light fantasticehs_wildcats on January 19th, 2016 03:30 pm (UTC)
that it is trending down is not a good sign.

what baffles me is they are spending major money on ads but not doing much else.
Beejeezbee on January 19th, 2016 05:30 pm (UTC)
It's so weird. If you're not watching TV you might not even be aware about it coming out. Their promo is so one-sided and non-creative.
Beejeezbee on January 19th, 2016 03:35 pm (UTC)
As Cady said, the downwards trend is not good but tbh, I think this was always too high and is still too optimistic.

Personally, I will be more than happy if they can hit $10m although even with that number he will get flack. However, I expect it to be below at this point, I just hope it won't be too low. But fingers crossed..
kleth on January 17th, 2016 08:02 pm (UTC)
"it's less than a week to go and there is hardly anything in the media."

I was wondering about that. I don't understand Lionsgate's business plan. Who doesn't promote the product they are selling? Sure it "saves money" but that's like saying "We don't feed the kids, it saves money."