hunny miss (aka lets fead him to the gators) (ehs_wildcats) wrote,
hunny miss (aka lets fead him to the gators)

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'Neighbors' Saturday Box Office Update

From THR:
Neighbors, the R-rated comedy starring Seth Rogen and Zac Efron as feuding next door neighbors, partied its way to a stellar $19.6 million Friday, and is on its way to unseating holdover Amazing Spider-Man 2 for the top spot at the domestic box office.

...Neighbors is likely to earn an outstanding $48 million to $49 million in its U.S. debut, while the Andrew Garfield-starring Spidey sequel, which earned $10.1 million Friday, is expected to gross $36 million to $37 million for the Mother's Day weekend.

The raunchy comedy also opened in 29 international territories and it is No. 1 in 16 territories. In the U.K. and Ireland, the film opened No. 1 with a 46 percent market share. Through Friday, its box office total is an estimated $10.4 million (£6.1 million) at 500 dates including some previews. The film is also No. 1 in Australia with 50 percent market share with a total after two days plus last weekend’s previews is $4.3 million.

Sony's Spider-Man sequel, now in its second weekend and playing in 4,324 locations, should have a new domestic cume of around $147 million by Sunday, but is seeing a drop of nearly 60 percent in its second weekend.

Sorry for the late posting, aside from my unusual schedule I also wanted to look again at historical drops for movies like Neighbors. Regardless of where exactly it ends up, it is doing amazingly well and everyone should be thrilled. It was awesome to see it break out late Friday so I could toss out my conservative estimates, lol.

Because there isn't any singular corresponding film/pattern to look at, there are a few options and I do think THR's prediction of $48-49 million is probably most likely because it is likely to be more front-loaded and thus decline in sales on Saturday. I don't think Mother's Day will be as big of an influence as some think but it will still probably see a 25-30% drop on Sunday, which is pretty standard for previous Mother's Day openers.

Basically considering a Saturday drop in the range of (the steeper) 30% to just 10%, it lands between $46 and $50 million. If it unexpectedly rises (or even just holds even) Saturday and/or doesn't drop as significantly Sunday (following the Ted pattern), then we'll get into the $50s range. But the greatest thing is, even if it totally collapses like Magic Mike did (where sales dropped a whopping 40% Friday to Saturday), it should still pass $40 million. But I don't see that happening, not with reports of packed theaters and sold out shows.
Tags: box office, neighbors
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