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May 10th
06:17 pm
'Neighbors' Saturday Box Office Update  
From THR:
Neighbors, the R-rated comedy starring Seth Rogen and Zac Efron as feuding next door neighbors, partied its way to a stellar $19.6 million Friday, and is on its way to unseating holdover Amazing Spider-Man 2 for the top spot at the domestic box office.

...Neighbors is likely to earn an outstanding $48 million to $49 million in its U.S. debut, while the Andrew Garfield-starring Spidey sequel, which earned $10.1 million Friday, is expected to gross $36 million to $37 million for the Mother's Day weekend.

The raunchy comedy also opened in 29 international territories and it is No. 1 in 16 territories. In the U.K. and Ireland, the film opened No. 1 with a 46 percent market share. Through Friday, its box office total is an estimated $10.4 million (£6.1 million) at 500 dates including some previews. The film is also No. 1 in Australia with 50 percent market share with a total after two days plus last weekend’s previews is $4.3 million.

Sony's Spider-Man sequel, now in its second weekend and playing in 4,324 locations, should have a new domestic cume of around $147 million by Sunday, but is seeing a drop of nearly 60 percent in its second weekend.

Sorry for the late posting, aside from my unusual schedule I also wanted to look again at historical drops for movies like Neighbors. Regardless of where exactly it ends up, it is doing amazingly well and everyone should be thrilled. It was awesome to see it break out late Friday so I could toss out my conservative estimates, lol.

Because there isn't any singular corresponding film/pattern to look at, there are a few options and I do think THR's prediction of $48-49 million is probably most likely because it is likely to be more front-loaded and thus decline in sales on Saturday. I don't think Mother's Day will be as big of an influence as some think but it will still probably see a 25-30% drop on Sunday, which is pretty standard for previous Mother's Day openers.

Basically considering a Saturday drop in the range of (the steeper) 30% to just 10%, it lands between $46 and $50 million. If it unexpectedly rises (or even just holds even) Saturday and/or doesn't drop as significantly Sunday (following the Ted pattern), then we'll get into the $50s range. But the greatest thing is, even if it totally collapses like Magic Mike did (where sales dropped a whopping 40% Friday to Saturday), it should still pass $40 million. But I don't see that happening, not with reports of packed theaters and sold out shows.
Mood: tiredtired
12 12 comments Comment
Bee: Zac – CStC Premiere - grinningjeezbee on May 11th, 2014 02:47 am (UTC)
I'm sooo glad this is going so well. It was clear it wouldn't be bombing a long time ago but to have such great numbers is amazing. And that on top of great reviews.

It really couldn't have come at a better time for Zac. And it's nice for us too.

Now fingers crossed for a good internal multiplier.
Miranda gives everyone a chancemirandagirll on May 11th, 2014 08:43 pm (UTC)
What's an internal multiplier?
crowleyd545crowleyd545 on May 11th, 2014 03:51 am (UTC)
you know your stuff.

so happy this film is doing so well.
hunny miss (aka lets fead him to the gators)ehs_wildcats on May 11th, 2014 06:20 am (UTC)
thanks :) i actually feel a bit awkward because i usually go more with my gut on buzz but this time i've been super conservative with my estimates.
crowleyd545crowleyd545 on May 11th, 2014 06:49 am (UTC)
of course not. btw, EHS has been my go to source after his old zefron forums in '06 during the height of hsm. thanks for the hard work!
kleth on May 12th, 2014 07:23 pm (UTC)
According to Box Office Mojo, Neighbors should eventually top $140 million domestically and $100 million overseas. So I sure hope Zac did sign on for a back-end share of the loot.

I also hope this success will stir his hormones and make him want to do it again.
zacsfagzacsfag on May 11th, 2014 05:55 am (UTC)
Congrats to Zac on another hit! Hopefully this will lead to more (and much better) jobs in the future. I saw this on PutLocker, and it was the worst movie I have ever seen in my life. But apparently, I am in the minority.
kleth on May 12th, 2014 07:12 pm (UTC)
Re: Congrats!
"the worst movie I have ever seen"

No, you mean "the worst good movie I've ever seen." There are many bad movies that are worse.

But it's true, if you can't tune in to the same wavelength (the "vibe," as you youngun's would say), this movie is just a shambles of crude genitalia jokes and sight gags.
zacsfagzacsfag on May 12th, 2014 07:20 pm (UTC)
Re: Congrats!
No, I mean this is the worst movie I have ever seen. No one else can say what the worst movie I have seen is except me, because it is my opinion. But I acknowledge that I am in the minority.

I'm hoping this success will lead to better movies. One thing that is pissing me off is all these articles about this being a "comeback." That Awkward Moment was a hit (53 m in revenue on an 8 m budget). And that was 5 months ago! Another article also claimed that The Lucky One was a flop. Also untrue (99 m/25 m budget). In my opinion, Zac has only had 1 flop that was not a major release. Indie movies shouldn't count.

Zac has had a long run of hits, and I believe it will continue because he has talent and isn't afraid to do a variety of roles.
kleth on May 12th, 2014 07:37 pm (UTC)
Re: Congrats!
It's a matter of definitions.

The Lucky One and That Awkward Moment earned their costs back and probably turned a decent profit. Zac can build a career on that kind of action.

But none of his subsequent movies has won opening weekend (except New Year's Eve, and that wasn't really his movie) or earned the kind of money that makes studio bosses sit up and howl (except for The Lorax, which wasn't really his movie, although he voiced the lead character)

Maybe indie movies shouldn't count, but they do. All of his indies represent good work, but none of them attained wide distribution and therefore failed to earn back their cost.

By these definitions, I think 17 Again may have been his last previous "hit" with total box office well over $100 million. That's been a long time.
zacsfagzacsfag on May 12th, 2014 11:31 pm (UTC)
Re: Congrats!
I agree that there are different categories of hits. Maybe Neighbors will end up a category higher than The Lucky One or That Awkward Moment by grossing 100 m. That would be great for him.

But some articles online that make it seem as though he hasn't had at least a moderate hit since 2009 are exaggerating and sometimes flat-out lying. They are exaggerating his "lows" to further manufacture a "comeback" story. Compared to other former child/teen stars in a transitioning period like Taylor Lautner, Zac is doing amazing. That's because he has looks AND talent.
kleth on May 13th, 2014 06:31 pm (UTC)
Re: Congrats!
"Zac is doing amazing."

This is something we can agree on totally. He has always done well: started doing TV at age 14, got a recurring character on a series within two years, got cast as the lead in a movie within three years, and became an international star in four years. Since his breakout in HSM, he has starred in ten movies, both comedies and drama, working with high-rep directors even on financially unsuccessful indie projects, and sharing the lead with actors of repute.

On the other hand, I don't think Lautner is "transitioning" to anything.

You are two-thirds right about the reasons for Zac Efron's success: Looks, Talent, and I add the third, Charm. Everybody likes this guy. The most recent example of the Zac charm ray is Seth Rogen. Some years ago, he wanted to dislike Zac as a smart-ass kid who was full of himself for some silly Disney musical thing, but after meeting Zac, Rogen was smitten and eventually invited him to join a project that has turned into a big hit for both of them.