Kevin Hart and Ice Cube’s “Ride Along” is heading for a box-office three-peat, after holding off a challenge from the R-rated bro-mantic comedy “That Awkward Moment” on Friday.
Universal’s buddy cop comedy brought in nearly $4 million Friday and is on track for a $12 million third week, which should be good enough for No. 1 on what’s shaping up as a very slow Super Bowl weekend at the box office.
“That Awkward Moment,” which features young stars Zac Efron, Miles Teller and Michael B. Jordan, was in that same range with a $3.9 million opening day and should wind up at around $10 million for the three days. That’s in line with distributor Focus Features’ projections but a little under where analysts had “Awkward Moment,” the first release from Focus since it absorbed FilmDistrict last fall.
So, I'm not actually sure it will get to $10 million.
Looking closely at the percentage drops between Saturday and Sunday for other Super Bowl weekends, most movies outside of kid flicks fell 65-75%. The one shining ray of hope in the sea of data is When in Rome which opened on SB weekend, was a rom com, and only fell about 45%. Twitter seems relatively quiet today though so I'm not sure there will be an increase on Saturday's returns.
If there is no increase and no decrease from Friday to Saturday and the film drops 65% on Sunday, it will end up around $9.1 million or if it only drops 50% on Sunday, it will end up about $9.75.
If it gets a 20% bump on Saturday, it can make it to $10 million even with a 65% Sunday drop (but not 75%). On the other hand, if the film actually drops on Saturday as well as on Sunday (which tends to happen with star-driven movies), then there is a chance it might not even make $9 million.
Anyway. It's a lot of math, but $10 million seems a stretch, but fingers crossed. Reaching the teens would've been best-case scenario but let's not forget this was an R-rated bro rom com with mediocre reviews dropped on Super Bowl weekend. Marketing was tough with the demographic challenges and they were surely on a tight budget. Compare this marketing push to what they did for CStC and you can see how efficient they were, including maximizing their social network engagement. So, while $9-10 million isn't a great number, I'm not too disappointed or surprised. Now I'm just looking forward to a new project and Neighbors being awesome.