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Apr 20th
06:38 pm
Early TLO Box Office Post  
These are the earliest numbers so it's kind of a reach to say with certainty where things will go, but...

THR says:
Warner Bros.' Lucky One should gross $6 million to $7.5 million for the day, also a good start and ahead of the $4 million Hunger Games is projected to earn. At those levels, Lucky One should open between $16 million and $18 million.

Variety says:
The weekend's other wide release, Warner Bros.' "The Lucky One," is also clicking with auds. The Nicholas Sparks adaptation, which opened in 3,155 locations, is on track for a $7.5 million Friday take and a hearty weekend cume of $18 million-$20 million.

Deadline says:
The Lucky One starring Zac Efron, is looking like $7M-$9M today to overperform for an expected $20M-$24M weekend playing in 3,115 theaters.

Hopefully since THR reported first then Variety then Deadline, this means the numbers are trending up, though I worry the latter two may be a little overenthusiastic. My concerns are 1) how fan-driven is this and related 2) will those numbers deflate as the day (and then weekend) progresses, which is what happened with CStC.

Generally with fan-driven films, the first day is the rush of fans. Then the second day has a huge decrease because fans are done. However I'm hoping that because of the way that Twitter and Facebook were acting, so slow and non-frenetic, that it won't have that typical fan rush.

So the three basic outcomes here: If Friday comes in over-performing at $9 million and holds steadier like Water for Elephants it will get to $22 million. If it weakens like fan-driven Charlie St. Cloud it will get to $20 million. If Friday comes in strong (but not huge) at $7.5 million, it will come between $17 and $18.5 million. However if Friday is weaker at $6 million, it will come in between $13.5 and $14.7 million. Its ultimate fate should be clearer later tonight and tomorrow morning but knock on wood.

eta: Forgot to add that it will be number two for the weekend, behind Think Like a Man.
 
 
Mood: anxiousanxious
53 53 comments Comment
 
 
Beejeezbee on April 21st, 2012 12:49 am (UTC)
I really, really hoping he can get it to $20m - the way things are going with predictions/expectations, critics, etc. he needs that number.

I hope the evening attendance holds up considering how young the movie is skewing.
abigail80831: pic#113712706abigail80831 on April 21st, 2012 12:55 am (UTC)
"considering how young the movie is skewing" sorry but what exactly does that mean? Yeah, I'm stupid haha.
(no subject) - jeezbee on April 21st, 2012 01:04 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - abigail80831 on April 21st, 2012 01:08 am (UTC) (Expand)
lilly4848lilly4848 on April 21st, 2012 12:57 am (UTC)
Wait....that last sentence....are you saying for sure that TLAM will be number one? Or is that just some scenario? I'm confused.

I saw it twice today, and am taking my husband to see it tomorrow.
hunny miss (aka lets fead him to the gators)ehs_wildcats on April 21st, 2012 01:00 am (UTC)
yes, TLAM should definitely be number one... barring a natural disaster.
abigail80831: pic#113712706abigail80831 on April 21st, 2012 01:01 am (UTC)
Call me crazy but I'm still happy/alright with it being #2 Sure I'd LOVE for it to be #1 but 2nd isn't bad either IMO.
It's Audrey not Aubreyaudrey_za on April 21st, 2012 01:04 am (UTC)
I mean...

Okay, so I love you Cady (and in NO way is my comment a means to denote your musings, because I know you do early BO posts for all his films) and of course I'm always feeling the f*ck out of Zac, but are the #'s really that serious? I'm aware they matter. I understand that to a degree the BO does matter- to studios, crews and the cast as individuals.

That being said, I'm not about to sit on pins and needles waiting for numbers to dictate or somehow "prove" Zac or this film's worth. I'm excited, I hope others (especially fellow fans) are stoked- and I am beyond pumped to watch the HELL out of the flick this weekend... regardless what # it debuts at.

/soapbox

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abigail80831: pic#113712706abigail80831 on April 21st, 2012 01:07 am (UTC)
*cries* I feel the sameway. Well said. <3
(no subject) - musewriter on April 21st, 2012 01:20 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - abigail80831 on April 21st, 2012 01:28 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - ehs_wildcats on April 21st, 2012 01:34 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - audrey_za on April 21st, 2012 01:37 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - sapphia on April 21st, 2012 02:14 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - jeezbee on April 21st, 2012 01:26 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - audrey_za on April 21st, 2012 01:30 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - jeezbee on April 21st, 2012 01:38 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - audrey_za on April 21st, 2012 01:46 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - annabelle83 on April 21st, 2012 01:48 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - abigail80831 on April 21st, 2012 01:50 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - annabelle83 on April 21st, 2012 01:59 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - jeezbee on April 21st, 2012 01:55 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - butterflybee260 on April 21st, 2012 01:52 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - abigail80831 on April 21st, 2012 01:56 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - jeezbee on April 21st, 2012 02:04 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - butterflybee260 on April 21st, 2012 02:22 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - jeezbee on April 21st, 2012 11:21 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - mirandagirll on April 21st, 2012 03:51 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - jeezbee on April 21st, 2012 11:51 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - mirandagirll on April 21st, 2012 04:01 pm (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - ehs_wildcats on April 21st, 2012 04:14 pm (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - mirandagirll on April 21st, 2012 04:29 pm (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - poppyj on April 21st, 2012 09:05 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - jeezbee on April 21st, 2012 11:58 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - kleth on April 21st, 2012 08:40 pm (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - kleth on April 21st, 2012 04:04 pm (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - mirandagirll on April 21st, 2012 04:24 pm (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - ehs_wildcats on April 21st, 2012 01:31 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - audrey_za on April 21st, 2012 01:42 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - annabelle83 on April 21st, 2012 01:56 am (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - jeezbee on April 21st, 2012 01:50 am (UTC) (Expand)
The Writers Denmusewriter on April 21st, 2012 02:42 am (UTC)
I'd be more concerned if he didn't have The Paperboy and Bahrani waiting in the wings. I think (and hope) that those will be the films that get him the respect he deserves and show his true acting chops where drama is concerned
lilly4848lilly4848 on April 21st, 2012 02:54 am (UTC)
Unfortunately, the movies are a business, and as such, they must make money to survive. If Zac can't show that he can bring in the big bucks, then his opportunities for work in better movies will go away. What really bothers me about TLAM finishing ahead of TLO is that it opened in like 1000 less theaters. TBH, I'm kinda hoping for that natural disaster....one where nobody is hurt, of course, but just where TLAM goes to Munchkinland or something.

(I also think that with 3D being everywhere now, box office numbers, as far as what number a movie finishes for the weekend, are becoming unfair, seeing as the ticket price is jacked up for 3D. That doesn't enter into the equation this weekend though.)
what in the worldpolly_amore11 on April 21st, 2012 03:40 am (UTC)
I saw this movie twice today and can't say enough good things about it. Yes, paid!

It delivered. ZAC delivered, as did the other actors and all involved.

I really appreciate how he played this character and how he loved Beth, how he interacted with her ex (and Ben). So stoic and so..reserved and contemplative, and so goddamn SEXY!

Edited at 2012-04-21 03:42 am (UTC)
Miranda gives everyone a chancemirandagirll on April 21st, 2012 04:15 am (UTC)
Officially talking about what I thought about the movie now.

I saw it today in an early afternoon showing, so I'm thinking that I'm going to be the only one in the theater, right? Wrong. The theater was packed; half with girls my age (some a little older) and the other half old ladies (like grandma age). There were lots of old people there.

The movie itself was really good. Probably because I'm a fan of these movies, but U thought Zac's acting, as well as the rest of the cast's was excellence. The movie did the book justice for the people who thought it wouldn't, it did. Zac portrayed a marine perfectly (like he was so believable). I will never understand the people who said Logan and Beth had no chemistry because they so did. Every time Clayton came into the picture, I would be like, "Nooo, go to Logan, Beth" Logan and Ben were adorable.

Let me just say that I'm pissed off at my movie theater right now. Like these type of Sparks movies do REALLY well here, and they did not have a TLO poster up inside the theater, just the posters they have outside with the rest of the movies. They had a TLAM poster, but no TLO poster when those movies do really well here. That made me mad because I was looking forward to taking a picture of the movie poster (like I've done with all of Zac's movie posters).

But overall, I really enjoyed the movie and so did the people that were in the theater when I saw it. After the movie, everyone stood up and clapped.
Sapphirasapphia on April 21st, 2012 06:57 am (UTC)
Thank you so much for the story! :)
(no subject) - polly_amore11 on April 21st, 2012 10:51 am (UTC) (Expand)
renee_77: Zacrenee_77 on April 21st, 2012 04:19 am (UTC)
7 PM Showing in Meridian Id
Place was almost full with young girls, older girls, women in groups, old couples straight guys with their dates and gay guys with their dates and as an older person I really enjoyed it
abigail80831abigail80831 on April 21st, 2012 06:01 am (UTC)
Random but I loved that Jennie Garth took her daughter to see this movie (she tweeted it). Too cute.
lilly4848lilly4848 on April 21st, 2012 01:13 pm (UTC)
I posted this on Friday, but it seems that this is where it should be. "Well, I just got home from seeing TLO, and I have to say that I am pretty encouraged. First, I went to a NINE A.M. showing. I honestly thought that I'd be the only one there, but I was pleasantly surprised to see that there were probably 25-30 people. After that, I realized that I had time to go to an 1140 showing at a theater closer to my home. Now even though this theater is open to the general public, it caters to mostly Navy folks. It is located just outside of the Navy base, next to the Navy Exchange, the Pass Office, etc. There were about 10 people there. Given that it was a Friday morning, when most people are at work or school, I think that it is good news to have as many people as there were."

As far as my impression of the film, I really liked it, and liked it better than the book for the most part. I'm glad they left out the dumb part about the camera and the girls at the beginning. I would have preferred that the ending was more like the book. Trying not to spoil here. I know that they sometimes leave things out due to time, but the movie was only an hour and 41 minutes, so they could have included the dog and they could have made it so that you were not sure if it was one or both of them. I mean, that was the one part of the book story that I thought was the most well written.

Going to drag my husband to see it tonight. He was very curious that I went to a movie yesterday by myself. He doesn't know I went twice. LOL
Sapphirasapphia on April 21st, 2012 03:17 pm (UTC)
Thanks for the story.

:) I think I'll go to the cinema 5 times, no less! :)))
(no subject) - kleth on April 21st, 2012 04:14 pm (UTC) (Expand)
(no subject) - lilly4848 on April 22nd, 2012 02:20 am (UTC) (Expand)