To start with, the Thursday night numbers from Variety
Zac Efron’s buddy comedy “That Awkward Moment” has launched with $246,000 from Thursday night late shows in the U.S., opening in line with forecasts for $11 million to $15 million during the Super Bowl weekend.
Focus Features is aiming the film at female moviegoers and opening in 2,800 locations. Zombie comedy “Warm Bodies,” which also appealed to young, female audiences, took in just under $500,000 from late shows this time last year and went on to open at $20 million.
Here is a round up of all the box office predictions and the last cut, probably the most interesting thing, an evaluation of social media engagement from Variety:( Collapse )( Collapse )( Collapse )( Collapse )( Collapse )( Collapse )( Collapse )( Collapse )
I'm honestly not sure what will happen. I do really hope it will open over $10 million. I'm still not convinced though because social media interest just doesn't seem hot enough. There have been some nice tweets from regular non-fan people who watched it already which is good. I do think that there is a generation or culture gap between the mindset of most critics versus the audience it is targeted to which accounts for some of the negativity in reviews. So perhaps audience word of mouth will provide some positive momentum despite the not-so-good reviews.
It is interesting that boxoffice.com notes that on Flixster TAM is slower than 21 and Over
(also R-rated) given that on IMDB, TAM is quite a bit ahead of 21 and Over
on the Moviemeter. 21 and Over
made only $8.7 million on opening weekend (3/1/13). So hopefully the financials follow the IMDB trend, not Flixster.
One of the other comparisons referenced is Warm Bodies
(2/1/13). It opened to $20.3 million and as Variety said, the midnight showings were almost twice TAM's. The Moviemeter for WB is also somewhat ahead of TAM's on a comparative timeline. I think a few points are important too regarding the comparability of these two movies. If WB had big names, it's Moviemeter would've been higher. Also it had way better reviews, it was PG-13 and it definitely overperformed. All of these things explain why TAM will NOT perform like WB. It just won't be as high and by a significant margin I think.
One other thing the analysts may be underestimating is how front-loaded star-driven movies tend to be, at least one like this with almost no other compelling reason to go except the stars. Fans go for Zac (and, to a lesser extent Miles and MBJ) which inflates the opening day number and can lead to over-estimated weekends. And with social media engagement flagging, it doesn't show signs of breaking out.
Anyway, all of this just boils down to what I said before, I'm not sure what will happen, lol. This film really isn't as clear cut as some of his others but I do think it is going to be closer to $10 million. But again, I just hope it is on the plus side of that number.