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Apr 16th
11:12 pm
Numbers  
While nobody can quite agree exactly how much they think 17 Again will do in the weekend box office, everyone agrees this is Zac's day weekend of reckoning. With 17 Again, he's already proven to (most of) the critics that he can carry a movie with his charm and ability. Now he has to show he can bring in the bucks. I don't think he'll have a problem though.

The official theater count is 3,255.

Guesstimates:
RottenTomates.com: $19 million
EW Hollywood Insider: $26 million
Comingsoon.net Weekend Warrior: $21.6 million
THR.com: $20 million plus
Boxofficemojo Derby Game (avg of user predictions): $24.5 million
Rope of Silicon: $27.7 million
LA Times: mid-$20 million range
Boxofficeprophets.com: $21 million

Variety says:

Warner Bros.' Zac Efron pic "17 Again" is expected to come in leaps and bounds ahead of other titles thanks to girls of all ages. Last weekend, this same demo turned out by the millions for "Hannah Montana: The Movie," which opened to a sizable $32.3 million.

See full article below.

And E! Online says:

Can Zac Efron Win at the Box Office Without the Wildcats?

Zac Efron can: get dirty, clean up nicely, dress up a hallway locker either way and open a movie that's not named High School Musical.

Check, check, check—and check back for the final answer on Sunday.

Heading into the weekend, box office prospects were considered solid for 17 Again, Efron's first star turn outside the HSM franchise.

"I think it's going to do well," says Paul Dergarabedian, box office analyst for Hollywood.com and Media By Numbers. "If it did $20 million, it'd win the weekend."

With Russell Crowe's State of Play pegged to blow up what's left of the grown-up movie market, 17 Again's chief competition looks to be the Jason Statham shoot-'em-up, Crank: High Voltage, and defending box office champ, Hannah Montana: The Movie.

Efron versus Miley Cyrus? How will tweens ever choose?

According to 17 Again's studio, they won't have to.

"17 Again is rated PG-13," Warner Bros. distribution chief Dan Fellman reminded in an email. "Hannah [is] a G."

The difference is more than the number of swear words and amount of "sexual material," in the parlance of 17 Again's movie-board rating. The difference is perhaps the key to Efron's career.

17 Again, Dergarabedian says, is the "kind of movie that kind of bridges the gap between the super, wholesome G-rated [fare] that Zac Efron is commonly associated with, and positions him in an edgier role."

So far, the plan seems to be working. 17 Again is said to be tracking especially well among women—yes, women, as in adults. If all goes well for the body-switching comedy, it'll end up as the weekend's date movie for the unchaperoned set.

The danger for the movie—and for Efron—is that a certain teen-idol-loathing contingent may put its collective sneaker down, and nix 17 Again as a multiplex option.

"You always run the risk of alienating the male audience," Dergarabedian says. "…Guys sometimes feel intimidated if their dates are swooning over this guy [on the screen]."

If that happens, Efron may just wish he were the Wildcats' BMOC again.

source

More articles:

Variety

Another adult political thriller --Russell Crowe starrer "State of Play" -- dares the market today, but the Universal film will have a hard time keeping up with more escapist fare.

Warner Bros.' Zac Efron pic "17 Again" is expected to come in leaps and bounds ahead of other titles thanks to girls of all ages. Last weekend, this same demo turned out by the millions for "Hannah Montana: The Movie," which opened to a sizable $32.3 million.

Weekend's other new entry is Lionsgate's "Crank: High Voltage," which should do nicely based on tracking among males. Sequel reteams Jason Statham and Amy Smart.

The Friday box office is expected to see heavy traffic as spring break heads into its final weekend.

The specialty side sees 2008 festival favorite "Every Little Step." Sony Pictures Classics takes the film out in eight theaters in New York and Los Angeles. Documentary goes behind the scenes of "A Chorus Line" and brings together dancers who once performed in the show.

Universal is trying to manage expectations for "State of Play," whose high-profile cast also includes Ben Affleck and Rachel McAdams. Pic, based on the BBC miniseries, was produced by Universal and Working Title. It opens in 2,803 runs.

U is looking for "State of Play" to open in the range of last year's Russell Crowe-Leonardo DiCaprio political thriller "Body of Lies," which bowed to $12.9 million in October on its way to cuming $39.4 million domestically.

But "State of Play" could face a tough road. A number of films with heavy political undertones have failed to grab hold and break out. Box office observers say people are already bummed out enough.

"State of Play" cost $60 million to produce. Relativity Media co-financed the film. Crowe, who took on the role after Brad Pitt withdrew from the project, is rumored to have received a payday of $20 million.

While domestic auds don't seem to be drawn to films about current affairs, international moviegoers can be more accepting. "Body of Lies" made $76 million at the foreign B.O., nearly double its domestic take. Foreign grosses have helped to make up for lukewarm domestic revs.

"Syriana" grossed $50.8 million domestically and another $43.2 million overseas. Sony's recent political thriller "The International" has struggled the most, grossing $25.5 million domestically and $24 million overseas.

U is opening "State of Play" day-and-date in just five markets, with Spain the only major territory. Film goes into the U.K. next weekend.

Warner's "17 Again" revisits a favorite Hollywood storyline: going back in time to revisit one's youth. Pic, produced by Offspring Entertainment, also stars Matthew Perry. It opens in 3,255 theaters.

The movie is rolling out slowly overseas, bowing last weekend in several territories, including the U.K. It goes into Sweden and the Philippines this weekend.

Last year, Disney's "High School Musical 3: Senior Year," starring Efron, opened to $42 million on its way to cuming $90.6 million domestically and $160.5 million overseas.

"Hannah Montana" could see a big drop in its second weekend because of "17 Again" and the fact that it's a fan-based film. Pic has seen impressive weekday business, with many kids out of school for spring break. It grossed an additional $9.4 million Monday through Wednesday for a cume of $41.7 million.

Warners believes that "17 Again" will draw a broader aud than "Hannah Montana" or "High School Musical" did.

Lionsgate says "Crank: High Voltage," which goes out in 2,223 runs, is tracking well among both younger and older men.

In September 2006, "Crank" opened to $10.5 million on its way to cuming $27.8 million domestically and $17 million internationally. Lionsgate expects the sequel to debut with roughly equal numbers.

"High Voltage" may show some spark overseas with day-and-date launches in Germany, Russia and the U.K.

Actioners have fared well recently, with U's "Fast and Furious" turning into a worldwide blockbuster. Fox's "Taken," which skewed older, also far outperformed expectations.

"Fast and Furious" could take the weekend crown at the international box office as it expands into a number of territories, including Australia, Italy and Spain. Through Wednesday, worldwide cume was $229.8 million.

DreamWorks Animation and Paramount's "Monsters vs. Aliens" also should continue to do strong biz. Toon's cume, buoyed by higher-priced 3-D tickets, is $251.8 million worldwide through Wednesday.

At the specialty box office, openers include IDP/Samuel Goldwyn Films' "American Violet" (61 theaters), Roadside Attractions' "The Golden Boys" (20), Maya Releasing's "Sleep Dealer" (18), Story Island Entertainment's "Is Anybody There?" (six), IFC's "Lemon Tree" (two), Cinema Epoch's "The Butterfly Tattoo" (one) and Cinema Epoch's "Chasing the Green" (one).

source

The Hollywood Reporter

'17 Again' takes shot at No. 1 spot

Two young-skewing wide openers and a critically driven political thriller will look to do solid boxoffice this weekend, which also marks the sophomore session for the tween-girls phenom "Hannah Montana: The Movie."

Warner Bros.' Zac Efron starrer "17 Again" should do more than $20 million, targeting teenage girls while also attracting more than a few twentysomething females and sizable date-night coin as well.

"We're going to do very well," Warners distribution president Dan Fellman said. "It's tracking well, and we should have a nice weekend."

Efron built his film and small-screen celebrity with Disney's "High School Musical" franchise. So though "17" is sure to skew older than "HMTM," it will be interesting to see whether he woos a few fans away from the Disney pic.

Elsewhere among the wide openers, Lionsgate's R-rated action sequel "Crank: High Voltage" -- in which Jason Statham reprises his role as a professional assassin who battles bad guys -- targets teen and young-adult males.

Franchise-starter "Crank" opened to $10.5 million in September 2006 and rung up $27.8 million overall domestically and another $16.9 million overseas. It looks like "Voltage," a co-venture with Lakeshore Entertainment, should get into the double-digit millions this weekend without breaking a sweat.

Universal's political thriller "State of Play," Working Title's big-screen adaptation of a hugely successful British television series, is the weekend opener for older moviegoers. Although early reviews have been solid, prerelease interest appears a bit soft in tracking surveys.

Starring Russell Crowe as a reporter at a U.S. newspaper, "Play" was directed by Kevin Macdonald ("The Last King of Scotland") and co-stars Ben Affleck, Rachel McAdams, Helen Mirren and Robin Wright Penn. A bow south of double-digit millions would represent a disappointment, with the studio hoping to ring up $10 million or more through Sunday.

So what to expect from "HMTM" this weekend? The Miley Cyrus starrer bowed with $32.2 million the previous weekend, well exceeding prerelease expectations, so its second frame is sure to be big.

"It was so unexpected, but it was fun," Disney distribution topper Chuck Viane said of the pic's outsized debut. "Our jaws were hanging down over the huge success of the film."

Still, tween movies tend to drop 60% ore more in their second frames, so a decline of that proportion would see "HMTM" register up to $13 million or less in the frame.

Elsewhere among the holdovers, Universal's hot-rodding action sequel "Fast & Furious" should still have some fuel in its tank, with teen millions appearing doable during a third session for the Vin Diesel-Paul Walker starrer.

source

The Wrap

Will Zac Efron be a $20 million man?

Warner Bros. certainly hopes so. The studio’s “17 Again” starring Efron is expected to dominate the box office this weekend, far outpacing the other newcomers: Lionsgate’s “Crank: High Voltage,” expected to end up in the $10-$12 million range, and Universal’s Russell Crowe-starrer, “State of Play” rounding third.

Warners’ $20 million “Freaky Friday”-esque comedy, opening in over 3,000 theaters, marks the first time Efron has carried a big-budget film, but his track record as an ensemble performer is impressive. Last year’s “High School Musical 3: Senior Year” topped its October weekend with $42 million, and 2007’s “Hairspray” came in No. 3 with $27 million.

But “High School” was the third installment in an already tremendously popular TV-movie franchise. “Hairspray” also benefited from the Broadway show’s built-in audience and from stars John Travolta, Michelle Pfeiffer and Amanda Bynes.

Fortunately for Warners, Efron has more on his side than boyish good looks and Teen magazine covers. “17 Again’s” audience of teen and tweenage girls boosted “Hannah Montana the Movie” all the way to $32 million last weekend. It would seem that “17” would face competition from “Hannah,” but one studio executive, who requested anonymity, felt the Miley Cyrus vehicle has run its course.

“Hannah should have a huge drop and Efron and ‘17 Again’ will take a lot of that business,” a studio executive, who requested anonymity, said.

Lionsgate’s “Crank: High Voltage,” opening in 2,200 theaters, will depend on the young male audience who shelled out $72 million to see “Fast & Furious” on that film’s opening weekend. Like Efron, “Crank’s” star Jason Statham has a good box-office track record. The British action hero’s last major opener “Revolver,” was No. 1 with $41 million in 2007.

Statham’s films tend to average in the low teens -- the first “Crank,” budgeted at only $12 million, came in No. 2 with $12.8 million in Sept. 2006. With a price tag of $20 million, “Crank: High Voltage” has a lot more riding on it.

And for the adults there is Universal’s “State of Play,” debuting in 2,700 theaters. The R-rated drama/thriller -- starring Crowe, Ben Affleck, Rachel McAdams and Helen Mirren -- doesn’t have much competition in a marketplace dominated by Disney Channel stars, fast cars, monsters and aliens.

In fact, the drama’s only competition could be Universal’s “Duplicity,” which debuted with $14 million last month and is currently hanging on at No. 10.

“It’s much more intellectual than the kind of fluff we all put into the marketplace. It’s about varying tastes and having different films for different tastes,” another studio executive said of “State.” “Some movies like this have very good multiples. Word of mouth is what sells films like this. Whatever the result is, you hope that it sticks around for a while.”

“State” might be the thinking moviegoer’s choice this weekend, but it’s doubtful its first weekend’s returns will justify Crowe’s reportedly $20 million salary.

Columbia’s political conspiracy thriller “The International,” starring Naomi Watts and Clive Owen, was a disappointment in February when it debuted at No. 8 with only $10 million. It was bested by escapist fare like “Friday the 13th,” “He’s Just Not That Into You,” “Paul Blart” and even “The Pink Panther 2.”

source


LA Times

One Disney Channel star is gunning to take down another at the box office this weekend.

Warner Bros. opens its Zac Efron comedy "17 Again" today in hopes of garnering much of the same young female audience that made Walt Disney Co.'s "Hannah Montana: The Movie" No. 1 last weekend.

It's no coincidence that the "High School Musical" heartthrob, whose photo adorns so many teen and tween girls' walls right next to "Hannah" star Miley Cyrus, is hitting the big screen just one week after his former cable compatriot.

Dan Fellman, president of domestic distribution for Warner, said the studio was aiming to take a big chunk of the "Hannah" audience that's finishing up spring break this weekend.

Given its PG-13 rating, compared with "Hannah's" G, "17 Again" will draw somewhat older crowds, with many adults going on their own volition rather than being dragged along by a 12-year-old girl. But it looks like the overall audience will be about the same, as pre-release tracking indicates the movie, which comes from Warner's New Line label, will likely gross in the mid-$20-million range.

That's exactly what was predicted for "Hannah Montana" before that film went on to open with $32.3 million. A strong Friday, when some kids are still out of school, and positive word of mouth could propel "17 Again" into that range.

If the movie performs as predicted, it could provide a major boost for the career of Efron, whose smiling visage is plastered on billboards across the country, proving that his star power extends beyond Disney-branded singing and dancing.

One of the weekend's other new films, "State of Play," doesn't look like it will provide a similar boost for its lead, Russell Crowe. Crowe plays an investigative reporter who uncovers a government conspiracy. Tracking reports peg the political drama to open in the low-teens, which has to be a disappointing figure for Universal Studios, given the movie's $60-million-plus budget.

Low expectations for "State of Play" are another sign that ticket sales are increasingly being driven by younger and less affluent moviegoers, as older crowds seem happier to stay home and watch DVDs or TiVo. A couple of other sophisticated dramas released in recent months, "Duplicity" and "Body of Lies" (the latter of which also starred Crowe), both struggled at the box office, reaching domestic ticket totals of only $37.4 million and $39.4 million, respectively.

In an effort to attract an audience younger than the over-40 crowd, with which the film is tracking best, Universal's ads for "State of Play" have increasingly emphasized the film's thriller elements and shocking ending. That's probably a bit more sexy for those who go out on Friday nights than, as a review might put it, "an intelligent exploration of the state of journalism and politics in modern America."

In a development few would have predicted a year ago, "State of Play" might even get beat by Lionsgate's "Crank: High Voltage." The high-octane action flick starring Jason Statham is likely to perform similar to the original "Crank," which made $10.5 million on its opening weekend in September 2007.

The film has been aggressively targeted at young males with a digital-heavy ad campaign, which included a big ad on YouTube's home page, a Facebook contest and a free iPhone application. An opening in the $15-million range would surely please Lionsgate and co-financier Lakeshore Entertainment, considering that the entire budget for "Crank: High Voltage" was less than Crowe's $20-million fee for "State of Play."

"Hannah Montana" will be competing with those two films to be a distant No. 2 at the box office. February 2008's concert film based on the Disney Channel series and last fall's "High School Musical 3" both experienced 60%-plus drops in their second weekend in theaters.

There's no reason to think "Hannah" won't tap out its enthusiastic young fans just as quickly.

Still, Disney probably isn't concerned. Strong grosses Monday through Wednesday during spring break week have added $9.4 million to the "Hannah Montana" box office take, for a total so far of $41.7 million.

source

On the international front, Screen Daily reports:

New Line International’s comedy 17 Again starring Zac Efron has raced to $12.1m and opens in New Zealand and Singapore on April 16. The film has grossed $7.5m in the UK and $4.6m in Australia since opening last weekend.


Personally I've been meaning to do a write up of my own analysis. But I've been too busy to really get it all out.

But in general here, in no particular order, is why I think it will do well (ie $20 million +):

Google searches for 17 Again are slightly greater than that of the other two newcomers, State of Play and Crank 2, combined.

IMDB rankings for Zac and for the movie itself are higher than the other openers.

It had decent openings in the UK and Australia.

They've done a really good job of marketing it to a wider demographic, increasing Zac's recognition to adult audiences... especially through his SNL appearance (along with GQ and Interview).

Perhaps the most fascinating to me is that this movie has 70,000 facebook fans. That seems crazy to me. Not every movie is or can be marketed this way so it is hard to gauge if that is a good representation of interest or not. But hey, that's 7 times I Love You Man's fans. So something's right about it.

A lot of positive word of mouth on the imdb board and on other social network sites (read: Twitter).

Reasons why it might not do well:

Because nothing is certain except for death and taxes.

No really though. Hannah Montana's second week drop is a bit of a mystery. It is hard to gauge it against other G-rated films cause they are mostly animated (and those generally have more staying power). The next closest bet is live-action HSM3 but that had a very strange second weekend due to Halloween. So, who knows? If it does well the second weekend that could cut in to 17 Again a bit... but I don't think it will have much impact given the disparity in ratings and demos.

That said, for every positive I gave above that led to a big hit, I can also find contrary evidence resulting in, if not a flop, an under-performer.

Also the IMDB and Google info is slightly skewed by the movie opening a week in advance in two fairly major regions.

But all in all... I think the massive amount of positive momentum going into the weekend will carry the movie over $20 million, which should assure a number one for this weekend. My guess has always been about $20-22 million and I will stick with that.

Could it do more? Absolutely. Look at Paul Blart. In some ways they are very comparable. Their biggest difference being star power. Zac is a lot higher profile. But Kevin James has a lot of holdover interest I think from King of Queens.

IDK. It is way too late for me to still be up though, so I'd better stop here even though my friends irl could attest to the fact that I could drown you in statistics about this, lol...
 
 
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2 2 comments Comment
 
 
Beejeezbee on April 17th, 2009 08:18 pm (UTC)
As I said the other day, as long as it makes $20m I'm happy. Everything on top of that is the icing on the cake.

If it opens to $20m it should end up with somewhere between $60-70m considering the WOM on Twitter etc and that it has little competition in its demo until end May.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
hunny miss (aka lets fead him to the gators)ehs_wildcats on April 17th, 2009 08:29 pm (UTC)
me too. i thought there were a decent number of people at the first showing at my local theater.

idk how to judge it by cause i usually don't go to the first showing on friday if i go to an opening weekend. so...

well actually i can say there were more people at that showing then there were for the last showing on the first friday of duplicity. if that means anything idk.

i'm going to go again tonight to see what the crowd is like.